Report: Online Grocery Sales to Grow 3x Faster Than In-Store Sales

Overall grocery sales in the U.S. are forecast to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 1.6 percent through 2028, compared to the 5.6 percent posted over the five years ending in 2023, which were powered by the pandemic and price inflation, according to U.S. eGrocery Sales Forecast: 2024-28, developed by Brick Meets Click and sponsored by Mercatus.

While slower growth is expected for overall grocery sales, the online segment is projected to increase at a CAGR of 4.5 percent, more than three times faster than the 1.3 percent rate anticipated for the in-store segment over the next five years, according to the report.

Online grocery sales, which include delivery, pickup, and ship-to-home, are projected to reach almost $120 billion annually by the end of 2028 and account for 12.7 percent of total grocery sales in the U.S., up 170 basis point versus 2023, the starting point for the five-year forecast. Delivery and pickup sales, combined, will represent 10.7 percent of total grocery sales in five years.

“Two factors are creating significant headwinds that impact our eGrocery forecast. First, the market is maturing. Nearly all of the people interested in online grocery shopping have used it at least once by now,” said David Bishop, partner at Brick Meets Click, in a statement. “Second, even though inflation has recently fallen faster than expected, its cumulative effect continues to drive a flight-to-value behavior in grocery shopping and that will slow topline sales growth.”