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Online Grocery Sales to Grow Through 2027

Specialty Food Association

Total U.S. grocery sales are forecast to grow at a compound average growth rate of 11.7 percent over the next five years, according to the 2023 Brick Meets Click/Mercatus 5-Year Grocery Sales Forecast. Sustained growth will increase digital grocery’s share of overall grocery spending to 13.6 percent in 2027.

Across online sales channels, spending per order and order frequency are both projected to increase. For ship-to-home delivery (using shipping services), grocery delivery (through a courier), and pickup, average order values will likely increase by a CAGR between 4.2 percent and 6.4 percent, and order frequency is expected to increase by between 1.9 percent and 3.3 percent, according to the report.

The report also found that total grocery sales both online and in-store, are projected to grow at 2.5 percent CAGR over the five-year time frame. An aging population and declining household size weigh down the measurement, but growth in this area is largely motivated by increased household spending.

Inflation’s trajectory is estimated to decline from its 2022’s peak: it will continue at a five-year CAGR of 4.8 percent, starting at 2022’s 10.9 percent rate, reaching a more stable 2.8 percent by 2027.

Related: H-E-B Ranked Top U.S. Grocer; Pick-Up Only Grocer Debuts