SFA News Daily spoke to Datassential trendologist Mike Kotsyo about how the landscape for specialty foodservice will look in a post-pandemic world. Kotsyo will present the session Foodservice Update: The Mega Trends, on Wednesday, May 12, as part of the Specialty Food Live! virtual event.
How do you track, monitor, and predict trends at Datassential?
We use a wide range of tools to track trends at Datassential. First and foremost is our MenuTrends database, which includes over 100,000 menus from around the U.S. and world that are updated annually, allowing us to see which ingredients, dishes, and flavors are growing and declining on menus. We also use a machine learning engine called Haiku that takes that menu data and predicts which trends will grow or decline in the next four years. We also track trends using our Menu Adoption Cycle, which takes into account both the data we have access to and the expert insights from our team, who are focused on trends day in and day out. And we use consumer and operator surveys, secondary research, and a wide array of other databases and resources to inform our trend tracking and prediction process.
How has the foodservice landscape of the past year impacted your ability to stay on top of trends in the space?
Once we started to see shelter-in-place orders enacted across the country last March, we immediately knew that we couldn't track trends in the same way we normally do. Menus weren't being updated, operators were pivoting or closing, consumers were changing their eating behaviors, retail was exploding, and the landscape was changing on a dime. We quickly pivoted ourselves and began surveying consumers and operators constantly, with our first report released on March 12 of last year. Now we have over 50 reports available for free to the industry on our website that dive into consumer and operator behavior and answer questions like what were consumers eating? What made them feel safe? Where were they getting food from? What did they miss from empty store shelves or restaurants? We added metrics to our Flavor database, which tracks consumer sentiment on foods and flavors, to see which foods consumers most wanted to see both at-home and away-from-home. We began holding bi-weekly webinars where food industry professionals also shared what they were seeing and experiencing. The pandemic certainly impacted the trends themselves, but in some ways -- because everyone was at home with more free time on their hands -- we could survey and track what consumers were doing and thinking on a more regular basis.
Are you able to touch on one of the ‘megatrends’ you plan to share during your presentation?
One area I'll touch on is the evolution of comfort food. Comfort food, by its very definition, is attractive and comforting to consumers, but they've been eating a lot of it in the past year. A large percentage of consumers are tired of pizza, which is America's favorite food, so that just shows you where we are right now -- consumers are tired of eating the same foods day in and day out, even when they are foods they typically love. So we'll look at ways to take comfort foods to the next level and keep the category interesting. We'll also look at how different generations define comfort food. For younger consumers, globally-inspired foods like tacos and ramen are comforting, though you rarely see them on comfort food menus or in comfort food product lines.
What impact is the pandemic having on product development?
Right now it's all about innovation. Consumers are excited for new ideas and trends again. They are tired of cooking and want to try new, exciting foods again. As consumers head back to restaurants, CPG brands are going to have to compete for attention again. One area that brands will really need to focus on is health trends. Consumers tell us that they are looking forward to health trends more than any other trends this year, because they are trying to get their health back on track after a year of eating comfort foods and being largely sedentary. In my session we'll look at health trends, from plant-based foods to functional ingredients, and track their post-COVID trajectory.
Is there anything more you’d like to share?
The Winter Fancy Food Show was actually the last large industry event I attended before COVID restrictions were put into place and I'm so thankful I had that opportunity to see so many new products, taste so many delicious foods, and meet so many enthusiastic industry professionals before those restrictions. The Specialty Food Association is one of my favorite organizations and I'm excited to see the new, innovative products that will be showcased and connect with new colleagues. I've kept in touch with so many people I've met through SFA or who have attended my trend sessions and I'm sure I'll connect with new professionals at this year's session.