A shift in dining out occasions, off-the-wall menu items, and a push toward premiumization are among the 2024 foodservice predictions set forth by researcher, Technomic, Thursday.
After three years of pandemic recovery, industry growth will stabilize, explained Kathryn Fenner, principal at Technomic, during a webinar about the prognostications. They include:
The Wild Ride Subsides
“After seeing significant declines caused by the pandemic and the subsequent rapid growth in recovery, we’re starting to see a flatter growth curve,” said Fenner. “Real growth [not including inflation] is expected to be at about two percent.”
Inflation, while still at 3.6 percent growth, is likewise leveling out from the 5.1 percent to 7.8 percent levels seen over the last three years, she said. “That’s great news as many food operators have been forced to reduce menu prices in order to become or remain profitable.”
Although check averages are up, the number of visits to foodservice outlets has been negatively impacted. Next year, some outlets may, however, benefit from a trading down in venues.
“In 2024, limited-service, quick-service, and fast-casual restaurants may benefit from a trade down,” said Fenner. “People want to continue to go out to eat but as prices increase they can’t do so as often. In order to continue to enjoy, they will trade down from full-service to limited-service.”
That’s not to say that there aren’t opportunities for full-service restaurants in 2024, but to capture them, restaurants need to provide exceptional value and prioritize pricing so that it’s in line with their value proposition, she said.
The Great Occasion Shift
Consumers polled by Technomic indicated that, to stretch their food dollars, they’re more likely to do take-out rather than direct delivery from a third party. “They still want convenience experiences but they’re looking to reduce costs,” said Fenner.
Another occasion shift involves dining out in the morning. “Based on over 100,000 guest occasions that we track, lunch and dinner occasions are down slightly from 2021 and 2022, but breakfast is the winner since it offers a more affordable food-away-from-home experience,” she said. “Brunch is the new dinner. You can still enjoy adult conversations and beverages but you can do it at a lower check point.”
Extreme Weather Takes Restaurants by Storm
A growth in the number of extreme weather events such as heat waves, cold snaps, and storms, necessitate proper planning by restaurant operators, according to Technomic. Sixty percent of foodservice operators indicated that they are concerned about extreme heat/weather events that may impact their business.
“They need to be thinking about item availability, planning for extra supply during seasons where these events are more likely, and more nimbleness,” said Fenner.
Weather events also impact consumer behavior. Just over one-third (36 percent) of consumers who report living in/visiting an area experiencing extreme heat say they ordered delivery more often as a result of extreme heat.
Menus Go Granular
More than one-quarter of consumers say ingredient transparency is important when considering which foodservice location to visit, according to Technomic. Thirty-four percent of 18- to 34-year-olds indicated the same.
“Operators are getting granular about where the food comes from, how it’s prepared, and the types of ingredients used,” said Lizzy Freier, director of menu research and insights for Technomic, who cited Chicago restaurant Bambola which calls out lacto-fermented orange on its cocktail menu.
Beyond how the food is prepared, operators will call out on menus the specific varietals of ingredients. Cocktails won't contain just any apple, but that of a Granny Smith. Instead of generic red wine vinegar, Barolo wine vinegar may be called out.
Pandemonium on the Plate
“This is off-the-wall fare that causes people to scratch their heads in disbelief,” said Freier. “Young Gen Z consumers or Millennials are getting crazy ideas for food off TikTok and the internet.”
Examples include smoothies made with spicy infusions like jalapeno syrup, coffee with tahini, and French onion pasta. Lighter versions are cropping up in chains like Pizza Hut which served Pickle Pizza and Starbucks with its coffee with Extra Virgin Olive Oil.
“We also predict more skin and blood in the game, meaning fruit skin and animal blood, like a duck blood-based soup,” Freier said.
Tech-Enabled Hospitality
“We’re going to see technology still take hold, but it will settle into practical applications and enhance employee and customer experiences,” said Fenner. “It’s important to note that in the U.S. consumers are skeptical about robots and technology in foodservice.”
Sixty-three percent of consumers polled said they would prefer to be served by restaurant staff as opposed to a robot, with just 20 percent being okay with a robot. “That’s not to say that there isn’t a place for technology, it’s just a different type of technology,” said Fenner.
When it comes to back-of-house technology applications, 65 percent said that they would prefer staff as opposed to robots to prepare the food. When Gen Z and Millennials were asked the question, 51 percent said they would prefer staff.
You Say Tomato
Technomic predicts that 2024 will be the year of the tomato.
“Tomato is just so ubiquitous, you can find it in desserts such as Upside Down Tomato Cake and Green Tomato from Tanaka in Portland. There is tomato jam, frozen tomato, and even tomato water,” said Freier. “Additionally, there is global tomato-based fare so it’s a win/win opportunity.”
Related: SFA's Trendspotters Prognosticate 2024 Trends; Whole Foods Forecasts 2024 Trends.