Yeast shortages and the bread-baking craze filled news and social media platforms in the past year as home baking skyrocketed amid stay-at-home mandates. Categories like baking mixes, ingredients, and flours are experiencing a sales boom that, while slowing, still continues.
According to the Specialty Food Association’s recently released annual State of the Specialty Food Industry research, between 2018 and 2020, the $1.8 billion specialty category grew 41.2 percent in dollar sales. By comparison, the total baking mixes, ingredients, and flours category grew 26.2 percent during the same timeframe.
The bulk of growth occurred in 2020 as consumers stayed closer to home in the midst of COVID. The category grew 35 percent between 2019 and 2020 alone.
Baking ingredients like cornstarch and rising agents led pandemic-influenced growth, increasing 36.8 percent from 2019 to 2020. Flours grew 35.2 percent in the same time period, while baking mixes jumped 28.4 percent.
According to data from market research firm Mintel, 58 percent of U.S. consumers said they have tried a new cooking/baking recipe since the pandemic started. And with baking specifically, in January 2021, 31 percent of U.S. consumers said they were baking more often and planned to continue doing so, compared to a year ago, said Melanie Bartelme, global food analyst at Mintel.
As stay-at-home restrictions loosened in 2021, sales growth slowed. From January to April 2021, sales of baking mixes, ingredients, and flours decreased 10 percent versus the same time the prior year, as was the case for all categories that exploded during early-phase panic buying of spring 2020.
Bartelme sees consumers spending more time out of the home as an opportunity for mixes. “Shortcuts and tools that make it easy to keep up baking without all of the time and energy COVID baking required will be a key opportunity, and one that appeals to home bakers,” she said. “In fact, 67 percent of U.S. consumers who bake say they would be interested in kits that include all necessary ingredients.”
According to SFA’s research, the baking mixes, ingredients, and flours category is forecasted to reach $2.3 billion by 2025 at a CAGR of 6.4 percent, closer but still above its pre-pandemic 6 percent CAGR.
Alternatives like allergen-free, grain-free mixes and flours, including almond and coconut flour, are driving category innovations. “Alternative flours made from grains like einkorn and rye are following a trend we had already begun seeing before the pandemic, especially in restaurants,” said Bartelme. “The [pandemic influenced] lack of availability of traditional white flour exposed consumers to new grains out of necessity, and they may be discovering there is a great deal of flavor and nuance to be found in these flours.”
Bartelme also points to grain-free varieties like cauliflower and cassava as growing and expects to see more as the keto diet increases in popularity.
In addition to alternative grains and grain-free, reduced sugar in baking mixes and products that contain upcycled ingredients are also growing trends. Here are some recent product introductions that have come to market.
On-Trend Product Innovations
• Favalicious Keto Fava Bean Flour from Nutee Bean Company is a one-ingredient, gluten-free flour that can be used in a variety of baking, including breads, pizza, cakes, and cookies while providing protein. Distinctive color and nutty flavor; keto friendly.
• Kickerfeast Beet Pancake and Waffle Mix from Colorful Eats is a specialty vegetable-based pancake and waffle mix made with beet powder for a healthful option to plain pancake mix. The savory taste and vibrant color are pronounced when water is added to the mixture.
• Organic Flax flour from Seitenbacher America is made with organic flax seed and can be used as a healthy alternative to traditional flour. The company also makes a German Sourdough Bread Kit that includes spelt flour, liquid sourdough starter, and a double bag of dry yeast.
• Renewal Mills Dark Chocolate Brownie Mix is made with organic okara flour upcycled from the soybean pulp during soy-milk production. The mix joins a line of okara and oat-milk flours and is vegan and gluten-free.
• Stoneground Beremeal Barley Flour from Scottish Specialty Foods contains bere, an ancient form of barley with a distinct appearance and taste, grown and milled in Orkney, Scotland, for over 300 years.
Related: Buyers' Picks: Out of the Oven; ReGrained Receives First Upcycled Food Certification.